Recover value.
Build the next economy.
Could an AI-assisted recovery business find collectible errors in large payment flows, sell its casework to established recovery firms, and help Oregon make a better case for investing in robotics, industrialized construction and mobility?
One Now City business line, two routes to market
A proposed Now City business line sells reviewer-ready exception cases to firms already paid to recover money. The Oregon track tests procurement integrity as a public value proposition within Now City’s economic development strategy. Both require an authorized transaction sample before revenue or savings claims.
FY2024 transactions in the system; not a measured loss or complete state spend. [1]
Hypothesized annual gross public recoveries or avoided spend across a future portfolio; no audit establishes this range.
Improper Medicaid payments recovered over 2021-25, according to the governor; existing work is substantial. [3]
Month-12 net service revenue ambition from the prior brief, separate from state recoveries.
Where Now City may win
Incumbents already know how to validate, pursue and collect claims. Now City can make messy evidence cheaper to assemble: normalize contract and invoice terms, group likely duplicates, check pricing and rebates, assemble a cited case file, and queue it for a human. The product is incremental accepted cases at lower fully loaded cost, with traceable documents and reversals.
Kill criteria
No access to authorized records; most alerts are already worked; approval cost exceeds incremental value; contested claims do not convert; no paid pilot or repeat queue; security and procurement gates make the first deal uneconomic.
The pitch in one minute
“There are billions in recoverable mistakes, but the winning business is the casework layer.”
Payment data, contracts, supplier statements and supporting records sit in different systems. A detected anomaly does not become cash until someone proves entitlement, assembles evidence, handles a counterparty and reconciles the outcome. We would build agents that prepare evidence with source links and queue it for a specialist. Recovery firms or enterprise finance teams already own the customer and collection rights. We sell incremental, reviewer-accepted cases and measurable cash lift in an agreed class.
This is a hypothesis. The first paid pilot determines whether this layer is valuable beyond incumbent systems.
Why Erik + Ritchie?
Erik can connect a public value proposition to Oregon’s economic development coalition; Ritchie and Erik can sell and structure partnerships. Agents perform research and case preparation. A domain audit lead, public procurement adviser and secure data engineer must be recruited or contracted before live regulated work.
First customer test: recovery audit operations leader with a neglected batch. Expansion: repeatable private or public procurement class. Oregon: distinct policy track after proof.
Contract-to-invoice evidence
Choose one exception type with complex terms and missing proof: volume rebates, price variance, freight terms or vendor credits. Source documents, normalized obligations, confidence and reviewer packet are the product.
Incumbent channel
White-label a bounded queue for a firm that already has data rights, client trust, claim specialists and collection workflow. A partner may also become a competitor; insist on a paid blind evaluation.
Outcome data
Every case records source, rule, reviewer minutes, dispute, cash posted, reversal and preventable root cause. The compounding asset is a domain-specific evidence and outcome graph, subject to client data rights.
What the record supports
Procurement is a plausible first pool
Oregon’s 2025 DAS audit says OregonBuys recorded more than 40,000 FY2024 transactions totaling $2.14B. The system misses some state spending and DAS lacked a comprehensive procurement compliance function. The audit does not estimate overpayments. [1]
Medicaid example is far smaller
A 2026 audit tested $230,252 in duplicate capitation overpayments and estimated $232,000-$4.1M statewide over 2020-24 in that category. It does not imply a $10-50M annual opportunity. [2]
Fiscal destination matters
Oregon already reports $159M in improper Medicaid recoveries for 2021-25. Federal shares must be returned on Medicaid overpayments; program-specific receipts and appropriations constrain any reallocation. The $54M DOJ figure has a different period and may overlap; do not add it. [3] [4]
Big numbers, different meanings
These figures are deliberately not added together. Government error estimates, state procurement flow, vendor revenue, annual client benefits, prevention, identified claims and posted recovery each answer a different question. Dates and populations matter.
| Figure | Type / period | What it says | What it cannot say | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $186B | Estimated federal improper payments, FY2025 | GAO says $153B was estimated overpayments across 64 federal programs. | Neither fraud nor Oregon opportunity; includes other error classes and existing controls. | [17] |
| $138.9B | Oregon adopted budget, 2025-27 biennium | All-funds, two-year state budget. | Not annual addressable vendor spend or freely reallocatable cash. | [18] |
| $2.14B | OregonBuys recorded FY2024 flow | More than 40,000 transactions in system. | Not complete, net disbursements or measured overpayment. | [1] |
| $19B / $13B | Oregon Medicaid spending / federal portion, 2025 | Large regulated flow, much federally funded. | Not an audit finding or state-available recovery pool. | [2] |
| $159M | Oregon Medicaid recovered, 2021-25 | Governor-reported aggregate from existing audits/investigations/recovery. | Not incremental Now City opportunity; $54M DOJ figure may overlap. | [3] |
| $232K-$4.1M | Oregon duplicate capitation estimate, 2020-24 | Specific multi-year audit range; $230,252 tested. | Not an annual statewide waste estimate. | [2] |
| $2.90M | Oregon hotline questioned costs, calendar 2025 | Audit division identified costs warranting question. | Not recovered cash; no basis for extrapolation. | [19] |
| $486.64M / $382.21M | Medicare FFS RAC identified / recovered, FY2024 | CMS reported 78.54% recovery rate in this program. | Not contractor revenue or Oregon Medicaid results. | [20] |
| $426.29M / $284.66M | Medicare secondary-payer RAC identified / recovered, FY2024 | Separate HHS recovery-audit line. | Not additional to a broad HHS total if using that total elsewhere. | [21] |
| $157.05M | State Medicaid RAC federal share recovered, FY2024 | HHS reports federal portion across state programs. | Not total state-plus-federal recoveries or a vendor fee pool. | [21] |
| >$2B / year | PRGX claimed client cash flow, current site | Scale of commercial source-to-pay recovery business. | Not PRGX revenue; self-reported. | [22] |
| >$10B | Cotiviti claimed claims errors prevented/corrected, 2025 | Scale across more than 100 healthcare clients. | Mixes prevention and correction; not collected cash or revenue. | [23] |
| >$1B / year | Cotiviti retail claimed leakage recovery | Retail/enterprise recovery practice, self-reported. | Do not add to healthcare claim or assume distinct clients. | [24] |
| >$8.4B / year | apexanalytix claimed prevention + recovery, older brochure | Commercial AP/supplier management scale claim. | Mixed benefit types and old source; not current company revenue. | [25] |
| $2.4M | Xelix/UPMC recovered missing credits since Oct 2024 go-live | 1,300 credits in named customer case study. | $44M missing invoices were liabilities identified, not recoveries. | [26] |
| $23.5M / $1.7M | Xelix/Energy Transfer prevented / identified | Customer case study on AP prevention and recoupable findings. | $1.7M identified is not posted cash; prevention differs from recovery. | [27] |
| $2.3M | iNymbus claimed recovered from $2.8M backlog | Single customer case, under three weeks. | Not repeatable annual yield or total company revenue. | [28] |
| $169.8M | PRGX reported revenue, FY2019 | Historic annual filing before privatization; later public quarters exist. | Not 2026 revenue and not directly comparable to current $2B cash-flow claim. | [29] |
| $673.3M | HMS reported revenue, FY2020 | Historical company-wide revenue before Gainwell acquisition. | Not Medicaid RAC revenue, not Gainwell current revenue. | [30] |
| $123.0M | Performant reported revenue, FY2024 | $118.3M healthcare segment; acquired by Machinify in 2025. | Not one contract’s fees or current standalone run rate. | [31] |
| ~$670M | Machinify/Performant acquisition, Oct 2025 | Transaction value indicates strategic interest in payment integrity. | Not annual revenue or a valuation multiple for Now City. | [32] |
Size the fees, not the money recovered
The economically relevant TAM is annual vendor revenue from recovery and prevention services/software that Now City could sell. Dollars moving through AP, estimated leakage and client recoveries are the problem scale, not the provider-revenue market.
Cluster of syndicated 2025 estimates; inconsistent definitions and unverified methods. Another report says $260M. Treat as a research range, not an audited TAM. [33] [34] [35]
We found no defensible current U.S.-only revenue tally. A 30-50% share of the $1.15-1.28B global cluster would imply ~$345-640M, entirely an assumption, not a sourced national estimate.
State vendor overpayment audit and healthcare payment integrity have distinct buyers, contracts and data. Do not add GAO’s $186B in estimated federal improper payments or Cotiviti’s client outcomes to AP-services TAM.
$1M monthly run rate is ~1% of the ~$1.2B global category and ~1.9-3.5% of the hypothetical U.S. pool. Share math alone does not establish access or speed.
Editable market-to-revenue bridge
If the top-down and bottom-up SOM estimates diverge, use the lower figure until a named-account pipeline explains the difference. Year-3 SOM and month-12 run rate are different time horizons; the latter needs a separate sales-cycle model.
What TAM excludes
Medicaid/Medicare payment integrity, hospital revenue-cycle underpayments, customs drawback, retail AR deductions, AP controls software and prevention may expand the company’s product reach. Their fees have not been measured consistently enough here to make a defensible combined global figure. The report cluster is a narrow commercial AP recovery service reference only.
What a credible SAM requires next
A named account universe by vertical and annual AP spend; current auditor/contract; annual recovered cash and fee; accessible unworked class; data and supplier rights; procurement cycle; and verified budget owner. Count only accounts Now City can actually approach through a partner or direct channel.
Make the $10-50M claim earn its way in
The default starts with OregonBuys FY2024’s documented $2.14B recorded flow. Rates, collection and retained share are assumptions; the 0.05% default validated-error rate is not a published Oregon finding. Move the sliders; the page calculates a hypothetical result, not an Oregon forecast.
Public recovery assumptions
Gap to the ambition
A Coventry public AP audit collected about 0.01% of its reviewed spend; it is a single dated comparator, not an Oregon forecast. Do not stack spending pools without deduplication. Historic lookback recoveries are one-time; prevention savings need a separate counterfactual and cannot be counted again as collected cash.
Where to hunt next
Rank on accessible data, a buyer who already pays, claim defensibility and a repeat queue. These are exploration priorities, not measured market sizes.
| Lane / priority | Money flow and exception | First buyer / channel | Incumbent pressure | Next proof |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 · State vendor overpayments Lead | OregonBuys $2.14B FY2024 recorded flow; duplicate invoices, missed rebates, price and freight variance are hypotheses, not audit findings. [1] | State procurement / accounting or a contracted recovery firm | NC PRGX precedent; Oregon internal compliance gap | Read-only sample, contract terms, exclusion list, claim aging and disposition |
| 02 · Retail deductions Lead | Short-pay and retailer deductions; exception queues and portal evidence | AR recovery specialist / large supplier | iNymbus and established deduction platforms | Closed case cohort with reason codes, net cash and analyst minutes |
| 03 · Customs drawback Lead | Eligible import/export duties; proof assembly and classification | Drawback broker / trade specialist | Alliance and established brokers | Declined batch, eligibility opinion, claim deadlines and documents |
| 04 · Utility tariff + telecom | Rate-class and billing errors after site changes or migrations | Utility audit firm / telecom expense manager | Specialist auditors and TEM software | Bill + tariff pair; adjudicated historical outcome |
| 05 · Grants and contract compliance | Unspent allowable funds, disallowed charges, subcontract and rate terms | Grantee or prime auditor, agency program office | CPA firms, grant administrators, internal audit | Legal authority, fund restrictions and usable case sample |
| 06 · Medicaid payment integrity Benchmark | Large flow; duplicate IDs, third-party liability, provider claims. Oregon already has robust recovery programs. [2] [3] | OHA or incumbent Medicaid contractor | Gainwell/HMS, Cotiviti, internal PIAU | Unworked niche with incremental recoverability and federal-share accounting |
| 07 · Freight and supplier credits | Contracted rates, accessorials, missed rebates and returns | Recovery audit firm / enterprise AP | PRGX, AP automation vendors | Paid and closed invoices, contract baseline, credit realization |
The prior brief’s eleven-lane survey remains a hypothesis inventory. This shorter stack chooses the next evidence requests rather than implying each lane is equally attractive.
Where Now City could fit
Public company filings give old but reliable revenue anchors. Private competitors usually publish customer recoveries, staffing or fundraising instead of turnover. The matrix separates those measures and leaves undisclosed revenue blank.
| Firm / size signal | Company revenue | Client outcome or reach | Now City implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| iNymbus · specialist; LinkedIn 2-10 staff | Not disclosed. Third-party estimates conflict and are excluded. [36] | 52+ retailer workflows, case claim $2.3M recovered from a $2.8M backlog. [28] | Small firms can own valuable categories; their turnover cannot be inferred from a customer recovery. |
| Discover Dollar · specialist / growth | Not disclosed. | $450B+ spend analyzed and $1B cumulative value discovered, company claims. [37] | Direct tech-enabled recovery competitor; inspect how it turns detected value into fees. |
| Xelix · software scale-up; 100+ staff / 200+ clients | £6.4M sales in 2024 reported by Sunday Times; company does not publish current turnover. [38] | $160M Series B in 2025; $200M+ annual customer savings claimed on current site, including prevention. [39] | Small reported sales can coexist with major funding and huge customer outcomes; software valuation differs from audit-service fee economics. |
| APLX, formerly Audit Partnership · 220 staff FY2025 | £9.57M turnover FY2025 in a secondary extraction of UK filed accounts; confirm directly before investor publication. [40] | UK public-sector audit channel; company renamed APLX in 2026. [41] | Mid-sized specialist shows a government-linked path at single-digit million-pound turnover. |
| SpendLab · 120+ staff | Not disclosed. Unverified vendor databases range from ~$1M to $16M and should not be treated as fact. | €200M+ annually returned, company claim; typical international customers above €2B revenue. [42] | Demonstrates middle tier between boutiques and global giants, but outcome-to-revenue take rate is unknown. |
| SpendMend · hospital specialist | Not disclosed. | $413M client recoveries in past year and 150+ major U.S. health systems, company claims. [43] | Sector concentration can support material scale; healthcare procurement is a separate vertical from Medicaid RAC. |
| FlexTecs · 600+ staff | Not disclosed. Company states 25% revenue CAGR since 2020, no base figure. [44] | $1B+ annual recovered or prevented in Jan 2026 company release; current homepage uses another figure. [44] | Large tech-enabled services competitor with PE backing; measure partner openness, not assume it needs AI. |
| PRGX · global incumbent | $169.8M FY2019 net revenue, last cited annual public baseline; current private turnover undisclosed. [29] | $2B client cash recovery in 2023, 300+ clients and $2.3T spend analyzed, company claim. [45] | Direct AP category leader. 2019 Americas recovery segment was $116.7M, including U.S., Canada and Latin America; not a U.S. market-size figure. [46] |
| Cotiviti · healthcare + retail incumbent | $678.7M FY2017 across business; $73.4M global retail and other segment. Current enlarged private business is not comparable. [47] | More than $10B healthcare claims errors prevented/corrected in 2025, company claim. [23] | Health payment-integrity scale sits outside narrow AP audit TAM; historic retail segment illustrates a material adjacent vendor fee pool. |
| HMS → Gainwell · Medicaid infrastructure | $673.3M FY2020 across HMS solutions; not current Gainwell revenue. [30] | State Medicaid TPL and payment-integrity work through existing contracts. | Entrenched state access; subcontracts require explicit approval. |
| Performant → Machinify · healthcare | $123.0M FY2024, $118.3M healthcare; acquired for ~$670M in 2025. [31] [32] | Medicare RAC and commercial payer lines, now within AI platform. | Shows strategic value of data + recovery operations, but acquisition price is not a Now City valuation comp. |
Who actually sells recovery to governments?
This is a source-backed working census across comparable public procurement audits and adjacent healthcare, utilities, VAT and software controls. It is not a complete global registry. “Framework supplier” means eligible to compete for work, not proof of bookings; contract ceiling is not earned revenue.
North Carolina and South Carolina have named vendor audit firms. Oregon has an oversight gap but no verified non-health recovery prime identified here. [5] [48]
Maximum recovery fee for two listed statewide vendors; actual fees and collections undisclosed. Contract detail lists $2M and $1.5M target values, not revenue. [48] [49]
Distinct names across the five relevant 2026 GCA spend-recovery lots, by our deduplication. Framework access is an eligibility signal. [50]
Coventry recovered £218K on ~£2B AP reviewed in 2016-17; a single dated UK example, not a forecast for Oregon. [51]
Now City fee math on one state
At the Coventry 0.01% recovered-spend ratio, $2.14B of OregonBuys-like flow would imply ~$214K gross recovery and at most ~$43K contractor fee at a 20% rate. At a hypothetical $10M gross recovery, 20% would be $2M gross fees. Six such $2M annual engagements would be needed to reach $12M revenue, before any partner share and costs. Neither yield nor rate is an Oregon forecast.
Government SAM remains unmeasured
There is no reliable national or global tally of fees from state AP recovery contracts in the sources reviewed. Build it from awarded contracts, actual payments and contract duration, excluding Medicaid, debt collection and pure software unless sold into the same workflow. The North Carolina and South Carolina precedents prove procurement routes; they do not size the entire market.
| Firm / parent | Government proof and status | Scale / revenue context | Now City relevance |
|---|---|---|---|
| PRGX | North Carolina FY2024-28 state vendor overpayment auditor. [5] | FY2019 $169.8M group revenue, current private; $2B 2023 client recovery claim. | Large direct competitor and possible narrow queue partner. |
| Recovery Analytics Solutions | South Carolina statewide vendor recovery term contract; performance fee cap 20%. [48] | Woman-owned small business, company statement; revenue undisclosed. $2M contract target is not recognized sales. [49] | Smaller prime to study for white-label workflow and state procurement path. |
| American Utility Auditors | South Carolina statewide vendor recovery contract; 20% cap. Sacramento council also considered utility audit agreement. [48] [52] | Revenue undisclosed; SC contract target $1.5M, not sales. | Specialist public-sector channel; utility recovery may be separate wedge. |
| APLX (formerly Audit Partnership) | UK GCA AP and contract recovery lots; 2026 name change. [50] | FY2025 £9.57M reported turnover, 220 staff in secondary filing extract; verify underlying filing. | Mid-size model for government-focused recovery. |
| FlexTecs UK | UK GCA AP, contract and specialist VAT lots. [50] | Parent 600+ staff, revenue undisclosed, $1B+ annual client recovered/prevented claim. | Scaled platform competitor; potential subcontract channel only for a gap. |
| Basware Holdings · Liaison Group · Liberata UK | Three separate firms on UK GCA AP recovery lot. [50] | Private revenue not extracted here; framework listing is not spend. | Platform/BPO channel candidates, each requires separate validation. |
| Rockford Associates · Twice2Much · Westgate Moore | Three separate firms on UK GCA AP recovery lot; first two also contract-compliance lot. [50] | Revenue not verified here. | Smaller specialists for partner diligence; UK procurement rules differ. |
| Cost Clarity | UK GCA contract-compliance lot and utilities/telecom lots. [53] | Revenue not verified. | Multi-lane specialist, compare service economics. |
| Cotiviti GOV Services | Current CMS Medicare RAC Regions 3-5, including Oregon in Region 4; VA recovery system also named Cotiviti. [54] [55] | Historic Cotiviti FY2017 $678.7M group revenue; current private enlarged business undisclosed. | Federal Medicare Oregon geography is not Oregon Medicaid or AP contract. |
| Performant / Machinify | Current CMS Medicare RAC Regions 1-2; acquired 2025. [54] | Performant FY2024 $123M revenue; post-acquisition combined revenue undisclosed. | Deep healthcare competitor; potential infrastructure partner, high access bar. |
| HMS / Gainwell | State Medicaid RAC documented in Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona; Arizona activities on hold per state page. [56] | HMS FY2020 $673.3M company revenue before Gainwell acquisition; current line unknown. | Strong state incumbent; Colorado auditor raised potential conflict when fiscal agent and RAC share parent. [57] |
| Optum Insight | Kentucky procurement disclosure describes current state Medicaid RAC; historic Michigan RAC contract. [58] | Optum parent revenue is far broader than RAC; line revenue not disclosed. | Large health incumbent; no inference about Oregon. |
| CGI | Historic Colorado and Ohio Medicaid RAC awards, 2011; not verified as current. [59] | Colorado contract valued ~$13.3M over seven years (historic value, not recognized revenue). | Shows benefit-funded prime contract precedent; current status must be rechecked. |
| Public Consulting Group | Historical teaming agreement with HMS on state Medicaid RAC pursuits. [60] | Current RAC prime status not verified. | Partner-channel history, not evidence of Oregon engagement. |
| FISCAL Technologies | UK public Digital Marketplace lists AI AP risk, statement reconciliation and recovery software. [61] | Published G-Cloud price band £2,500-£150,000 per year per module/transaction; not turnover. | Software procurement route distinct from contingency audit. |
| Advanced Demand Side Management · PCMG | Two separate firms in UK GCA utilities recovery lot; PCMG also telecom. [62] | Revenue not verified. | Alternative public utility/telecom specialist lanes. |
| Berthold Bauer Consultants | UK GCA specialist VAT recovery lot. [63] | Revenue not verified. | Tax-specific evidence production, separate jurisdictional expertise. |
| Caatalyst | Historical Coventry council AP audit: £218K recovered on ~£2B reviewed. [51] | Historic project outcome, company revenue not verified. | Observed low yield in a well-controlled public buyer. |
Oregon-specific map
Oregon’s 2024 ODHS solicitation sought a contractor to recover Medicaid payments where another insurer should have paid first. The public listing includes an intent-to-award attachment, but this review has not verified the awardee. A CMS Oregon program-integrity review names Gainwell, Mercer, Myers and Stauffer, and HSAG as support contractors, without identifying each as the RAC. Do not conflate those roles. [64] [65]
Where to work first
For Now City, state AP recovery primes and UK-style specialists are closer operational analogues than Medicare RACs. The best first calls are small or mid-sized primes with permissioned data and a costly case backlog. A direct Oregon approach begins with DAS audit remediation and a precise read-only test; Medicaid requires a separate domain team.
Scope limit: a systematic 50-state contract census, federal award database search and international framework inventory remain in the Codex work order. This page names firms with specific government evidence found so far; absence is not evidence a firm has no government business.
The incumbents are the channel and the test
| Firm / program | Verified foothold | Where AI already competes | Partner entry wedge | Threat / diligence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRGX | North Carolina FY2024-28 state vendor overpayment contractor; compensation from recovery under NC law. [5] | Recovery audit and supplier/contract analytics; must validate current tool coverage by workflow. | Overflow or neglected non-health claim classes, evidence assembly and QA | Can build in-house; need proof of incremental cases, not generic duplicate detection. |
| Gainwell / HMS | Medicaid TPL services through NASPO vehicle; Arizona and Illinois identify HMS as RAC. [8] [9] | Claims matching, recoupment and payment integrity at scale | Narrow specialist queue with client permission and source-linked evidence | Deep domain data, existing state contracts and access requirements. |
| Cotiviti GOV Services | CMS awarded Medicare RAC Regions 3-5 in 2025. Medicare, not an Oregon state award. [10] | Established payment integrity review operations | Document-intensive pre-review in an agreed claim category | Appeals and clinical validation raise quality bar. |
| Oregon OHA / ODHS | PIAU conducts Medicaid audits; ODHS has medical payment recovery. [11] | Existing investigators and program integrity processes | Only if staff identify a bounded, unworked class | Federal share, member/provider rights, protected data, overlapping claims. |
| Oregon DAS / OregonBuys | 2025 audit found compliance and spend visibility gaps. [1] | Procurement modernization is already an agency responsibility | Evidence and exception workflow complementing DAS remediation | Authorization, scope, public procurement and ownership of decisions. |
Who could buy, partner, copy or block us?
| Player | Strength / number | Likely stance | Best test with them |
|---|---|---|---|
| PRGX | $2B annual claimed client cash flow; AI contract management and supplier platform; NC public contract. [22] [5] | Strong competitor; potential channel only for an unworked niche. | Ask what categories fail its analyst cost threshold and whether a blind, paid batch is possible. |
| apexanalytix | Older brochure claims $8.4B annual prevention/recovery and advanced analytics. [25] | Competitor and channel; deep supplier master data. | Find document-heavy contract exceptions outside standard recovery workflow. |
| Cotiviti | >$10B claims errors prevented/corrected in 2025; >$1B retail recovery claim. [23] [24] | Scaled AI competitor; government Medicare RAC. | Benchmark, then seek narrow specialist overflow only with explicit access and terms. |
| Machinify + Performant | AI platform acquired Performant for ~$670M in 2025; historic Performant revenue $123M in 2024. [31] [32] | Integrated healthcare competitor; harder channel. | Map categories left to human abstraction; avoid broad Medicare platform pitch. |
| Gainwell / HMS | State Medicaid RAC/TPL infrastructure; historic HMS revenue $673.3M across segments in 2020. [30] | Entrenched state channel and competitor. | Ask about bounded evidence queues; confirm Oregon contract and subcontract permission. |
| Xelix | Named UPMC $2.4M missing credits recovered and proactive AP workflow. [26] | Software competitor; may be data/workflow partner. | Explore post-flag casework that customer AP teams still cannot complete. |
| iNymbus | Retail deductions across 52+ retailers; claimed $2.3M single-backlog recovery. [28] | Strong automation competitor in portal disputes. | Test document exceptions that bots reject; paid blind evaluation only. |
| Oregon DAS + agencies | Procurement audit calls for better oversight and spend visibility; no public measured recovery pool. [1] | Potential buyer and decision authority. | Map remediation owner, procurement path, permitted data and baseline; no assumed contract. |
Prove buyer pull
Two operations leaders independently name the same unworked queue, show a redacted closed batch and agree to a paid evaluation with a clear acceptance metric.
Prove unit economics
One paid pilot; case-level baseline; documented incremental accepted claims; tracked collection or prevention; gross margin after human review, engineering, compute and appeals; repeat pipeline with at least a second buyer.
Prove repeatability
Three independent customers or channel partners in a shared exception class, consistent data-onboarding effort, signed commercial terms and a credible 12-month cash conversion plan. Size the capital request from the validated working-capital gap.
Win a queue before selling a vision
White-label an incumbent
Meet recovery practice leaders at PRGX, mid-size recovery auditors and AP specialists. Ask for a backlog they currently decline or defer. Offer a fixed-fee, blind retrospective evaluation on a redacted closed cohort. Output case packets plus a comparison against baseline effort and collections.
Buyer: audit operations leader. Value: more accepted cases per specialist hour.
Procurement integrity pilot
Map DAS State Procurement Services, state accounting, agency CFOs and existing audit authority. Ask which audit recommendation owns the gap, which records may be shared, and what contracting route is available. Start with a small category and documented claim rights.
Buyer: authorized agency sponsor. Value: reconciled collections and prevention.
Recovery to innovation
Work with Business Oregon, Oregon InC, SEDCOR and regional partners on a contingent economic development case. Establish public savings first, then propose a separate appropriation matched to existing innovation programs and independently audited results.
Buyer: policymakers and coalition. Value: measured fiscal headroom.
Source + buyer map
Request OregonBuys data dictionary and procurement audit action plan. Map 15 firms and 12 state/regional stakeholders. Seek 6 discovery meetings, two closed batches and one paid pilot design.
Blind challenge
On authorized historical transactions, compare machine flags to adjudicated outcomes. Track precision, incremental accepted dollars, minutes per case, appeal/reversal, collection time and infrastructure cost.
Paid production gate
Offer a bounded queue with human signoff, evidence logs and cash reconciliation. Expand only after a repeat queue and unit economics are shown. Publish a separate Oregon policy memo if state-retained funds are validated.
The $1M/month agency target requires an exceptional cash flow
At 20% net fee retained by Now City after partner share.
Recognize on the contracted payment basis, not flagged claims.
At 60% gross margin, before sales, G&A and working capital.
These are planning envelopes, not vendor quotes or a hiring plan. Check signed partner share, appeals, collections lag and loaded case cost; two months of direct outlay at this run rate is $800K before overhead.
Commercial structure to negotiate
First: paid evaluation. Then: capacity retainer plus fee per accepted case, or a share of incremental posted cash net of reversals. State contracts may require a different mechanism. Define baseline, exclusions, claim ownership, decision rights, refunds, appeal reserve and collection ledger in writing.
Agent-led operating loop
Agents scout pools → verify sources → compile incumbent capabilities → prepare meeting briefs → analyze authorized samples → draft cited case packets → score outcomes → update the investment memo. Erik and Ritchie run introductions, discovery, permission, negotiation and meetings; qualified specialists make recovery and legal decisions.
A fiscal engine for a physical innovation cluster
Use recoveries to make the case for new investment, not as a claimed earmark. Oregon already has a 10-year innovation plan, the Oregon Manufacturing Innovation Center, regional hubs and mobility funding. The proposed cluster would connect those assets through demonstration sites, commercialization and workforce demand. [12] [13] [14]
Test and adoption sites
Recruit anchor users for warehouse, care, agriculture and construction robotics. Fund shared evaluation, safety testing and supplier development; connect to OMIC and university talent.
Factory to project
Demonstrate component manufacturing, modular delivery and public procurement templates on real projects. Measure installed cost, cycle time, labor productivity and repeat orders.
Regional living labs
Pair accessible transport pilots and fleet operations with Oregon’s existing innovative mobility programs. Fund evaluation and procurement readiness in eligible places and programs.
Salem / Mid-Valley entry
Business Oregon’s FY2026 report lists a $385,000 grant to SEDCOR for a Mid-Valley Innovation Hub. That is an ecosystem connection, not capital committed to Now City or the proposed district. Explore Salem as a demonstration market with SEDCOR, manufacturers, builders and public agencies. [15]
Policy design
Publish verified gross recoveries, the state’s actual retained share, costs and restrictions. Then propose an appropriation or matching vehicle through the normal budget process. Target procurement and prevention savings that can be proven; Medicaid recoveries often return federal dollars and support existing health programs. [4] [16]
Review with Ritchie. Then hand it to Codex.
30-minute Ritchie discussion
5 min: thesis and evidence ladder. 10 min: number ledger and competitive reality. 10 min: choose one exception class, channel and six discovery prospects. 5 min: decide who owns meetings, domain expert search and paid pilot design.
Ask: What would make us stop? Which incumbent can get us an authorized closed batch? Should Now City build a cash-flowing service, a software platform, or a staged service-to-software business?
What to send
Send this self-contained HTML file as an attachment or place it in a private shared folder; it opens in a browser without a server. Share a short note and ask Ritchie to review the one-minute thesis, number ledger, competitive position and three pilot gates before meeting. For angels, lead with a concise PDF or live conversation after a paid pilot; use this page as a supporting reference. A public hosted link needs a deliberate access decision.
Pass this work order to Codex
This is the next executable brief. Copy it into a coding/research session along with this HTML file. The output should update evidence and dashboards as actual batches and meetings arrive.
PROJECT: Now City Recovery Intelligence, a proposed Now City Inc. business line + Oregon public value thesis. Start from the attached HTML, including the new evidence ledger and competitive analysis. Preserve its source/provenance discipline and interactive model. Re-verify all current company claims before external circulation. Do not present scenario inputs as measured loss. 1. Market intelligence: reconcile conflicting global AP recovery audit reports ($260M vs ~$1.2B in 2025), derive a defensible U.S. service-fee range, and map a named account SAM. Find and source 20 government procurement/payment recovery vendors and 20 commercial recovery firms. Separate prime contractors, software vendors and advisory firms. Capture buyer, contracts, scope, data access, fee model, AI capabilities, annual vendor revenue (filing versus estimate), employee band, client recoveries (separate), results with dates and original sources. No fake revenue estimates for private firms. Verify the awardee of Oregon ODHS solicitation S-10000-00007430 and distinguish TPL, Medicaid RAC, and state AP recovery. Build a 50-state census of non-health payment recapture contracts plus current Medicaid RAC primes and the UK GCA SARS framework; verify any existing Oregon non-health procurement recovery contracts; do not infer from out-of-state awards. 2. Oregon proof: obtain OregonBuys open-data schema and FY2022-25 records; analyze coverage, exclusions and duplicates without calling a flag an overpayment. Read the 2025 DAS audit and implementation status, the 2026 OHA duplicate-ID audit, state procurement rules, relevant budget/fund restrictions and audit authority. Identify a lawful read-only pilot path with agency counsel/official validation. 3. Three sample pilots: (A) procurement overpayment/contract compliance; (B) white-label commercial recovery queue; (C) recovery firm Medicaid evidence preparation only if an incumbent confirms a gap. For each define baseline, authorized data, specialist review, collection ledger, counterfactual, rights, appeal window, unit economics, security and stop rules. 4. Forecast bottom-up using eligible transactions × validated error rate × collection rate × retained share. Separate backlog from recurring flow; gross identified from posted cash; state share from agency fees; agency revenue from public savings. Show sensitivity and cash lag. Do not add overlapping totals or assume recovered funds are appropriable. 5. GTM: produce a ranked named-account list with primary source links, discovery scripts, pilot pricing options, procurement path and a 90-day calendar. Erik and Ritchie own outreach and meetings. Agents prepare briefings and evidence; no autonomous external messages. 6. Oregon economic development: map Business Oregon / Oregon InC / OMIC / SEDCOR / ODOT and current program rules. Draft a policy memo for a prospective robotics, industrialized construction and mobility innovation vehicle contingent on real state-retained, legally available savings and a separate budget action. DELIVERABLES: source-backed company-size and revenue dataset, defensible TAM/SAM/SOM model with named accounts, working dashboard, claim-level metric definitions, pilot protocol, outreach briefs, legal/fiscal questions for counsel and an updated HTML decision memo. Mark every figure as audited actual, public company filing, vendor claim, third-party estimate, assumption or calculation. Never add overlapping public recovery totals or vendor prevention claims. Include last-verified dates and correction log.
Primary sources and scope notes
OregonBuys FY2024 flow, incomplete coverage and compliance gap. No quantified loss.
Tested $230,252; extrapolated $232k-$4.1M for 2020-24.
Reports $159M Medicaid recovery 2021-25 and $54M DOJ 2020-25; overlap unresolved.
Federal share of Medicaid overpayment returned to CMS.
PRGX FY2024-28; NC statute and recovery-based compensation, excluding health.
FY2022-25 records; values may include coding issues and incomplete contract representation.
Government cost-containment categories; company source.
Identifies HMS/Gainwell as RAC in Arizona; not an Oregon award.
Existing industry-education-government collaboration.
SEDCOR Mid-Valley Innovation Hub $385k award.
FFS RAC $486.64M identified, $382.21M collected.
Separate MSP RAC and state Medicaid RAC federal-share lines.
Company-reported >$10B claims errors prevented or corrected.
$2.4M recovered missing credits; other figures have different meanings.
$1.15B global, syndicated vendor estimate; method not independently audited.
2025 global $1.24B and $1.23B respectively; vendor estimates.
$260M global 2025, $110M North America; likely definition conflict, unverified.
$450B analyzed, $1B cumulative value discovered; self-reported, not annual vendor revenue.
£6.4M sales 2024 (secondary media); 100+ staff / 200+ customers current self-report.
$200M+ annual customer savings claim; $160M Series B 2025.
£9.571M FY2025 turnover / 220 employees reported by secondary extraction of official accounts; underlying PDF not independently inspected.
Former Audit Partnership Limited name changed Mar 2026.
€200M+ annual client return and 120+ staff; not revenue.
600+ employees; $1B+ annual recovered or prevented; 25% historical revenue CAGR, absolute revenue undisclosed.
$2B client recovery, 300+ clients, $2.3T analyzed, self-reported.
$116.708M Americas recovery services, region includes Canada and Latin America.
$678.661M group net revenue; $73.433M Global Retail and Other.
Two named vendors, max 20% recovery fee; state term through Oct 2027 on listing.
$2M / $1.5M target values; detail pages show 2026 expiry versus 2027 term listing. Verify amendment.
Eight AP and five contract-compliance suppliers, overlapping names.
£218K recovered from ~£2B reviewed (~0.01%), Caatalyst provider.
American Utility Auditors agreement recommendation up to $500K; not proof of payment.
Cotiviti GOV identified as service provider in 2024 assessment.
HMS/Gainwell named; Arizona notes hold on RAC activity.
HMS since 2016 and MMIS/RAC conflict discussion.
Optum Insight identified as Medicaid RAC in disclosure.
2011 company statements; current contracts unverified.
Historical Medicaid RAC pursuit partnership, not current prime proof.
AP risk and recovery software, published annual pricing band.
Named framework suppliers, no awards or turnover implied.
Third-party liability recovery; listing shows intent-to-award attachment, awardee not validated here.
Names several Oregon support contractors; does not establish each as RAC.